تاریخ انتشارشنبه ۱۸ ارديبهشت ۱۳۹۵ - ۱۱:۲۵
کد مطلب : ۴۳۰۴۲

The Prospect of World Oil Turmoiled Market in ۲۰۱۶

Nadali Bay*
According to “chaos theory**”, OPEC, GECF and world oil market could not be excluded from it. It is not likely oil price will be balanced till ۲۰۱۷.
The Prospect of World Oil Turmoiled Market in ۲۰۱۶
NaftEMA: The World oil markets have been turbulent over the past several months and have spent important developments in 2015. The impact of continuous falling oil prices is becoming increasingly visible on devastating economies of petroleum exporting countries. OPEC’s the two ordinary meetings (167th & 168th) in June and November of 2015, had no change in output quotas. Iran’s returning to global oil market in post-sanction era, promises price battle in the future. On monitoring international milestones, US has become the world's top producer of petroleum and gas, thanks to fracking technology and shale revolution. This incident contributed to lifting the 40-years ban on oil exports, while Both Senate & House approved this legislation and also President Barack Obama signed the bill and US gained its independence in energy sector. By the way, The US will be the largest natural gas exporters by 2020, which threatens against gas exporting countries economies’. Tsunami of American cheap petrochemical products will deter the global petrochemical markets. According to International Energy Agency (IAE) estimate, US will be as an energy superpower by 2035 that will shift international relations. The 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21) in Paris will affect global energy market by its reaffirming the goal of limiting global temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, which leads to less dependency in fossil fuels and more addressing to renewable energies. But natural gas will be regarded as a clean fuel and will be an exception. Among other issue was oil and gas trafficking by ISIS which has affected energy markets in its own share that I can title it “ISIS Geopetro Terrorism”. The suspension of south stream gas pipe line by Russia, provoked EU to restates at launching and operationalizing TANAP and NABUCCO pipelines. TAPI was another regional milestone which opened as a rival for IP that can become a game changer in regional geopolitics and regional economic integration. Regarding Iran, holding GECF summit in Tehran, holding IPC conference, holding 11th IPF, could pave the way to Iran’s energy diplomacy in post-sanction era. At the same time, international marketing institutions forecast a bright prospect for Iran’s gas and petrochemical sectors. While, Oil prices are expected to remain low in 2016 and rise only marginally, international marketing institutions predict oil price will increase gradually from 40 to 80 dollars per barrel by the end of 2016. According to “chaos theory**”, OPEC, GECF and world oil market could not be excluded from it. It is not likely oil price will be balanced till 2017. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *Director of “Naphtha’s Center for Energy’s International & Strategic Studies (NCEISS) and PhD. Candidate of International Relations ** Chaos Theory deals with nonlinear things that are effectively impossible to predict or control, like turbulence, weather, the stock market, our brain states, and so on. In fact, it is the study of nonlinear dynamics, in which seemingly random events are actually predictable from simple deterministic equations. The Chaos Theory says that small changes in initial conditions can result in vast differences in the outcome. Principles of Chaos are: 1.The Butterfly Effect, 2.Unpredictability, 3.Order/Disorder Chaos is not simply disorder, 4.Mixing, 5.Feedback, 6. Forecasts. OPEC now seems to be faced with an entirely different problem. It doesn’t want to quit when it is losing.          
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